TIP : Lazio –1 Asian Handicap Odds 1,97

Lazio are now just two points shy of the Champions League spots following a fine return to form. They’re chasing down neighbours Roma, and the Aquile will be confident of making the top four if their current run holds up. Of course, Lazio would already be inside the top four had they avoided their worst result of the season on the opening day, when they were unable to break down a visiting SPAL side who were just returning to the top flight. Can they claim revenge for that when they head to struggling SPAL on Saturday?

The hosts are only outside of the bottom three on goal difference this weekend, and that’s got to be a worry ahead of their clash with one of the league’s most in form sides. The hosts have managed to pick up three draws on the spin at home, but stopping a side pushing for the Champions League is an even bigger test, one that’s going to be much tougher than their trip to the Stadio Olimpico back in August.

The hosts have been up against relegation battlers and mid-table sides at home in recent matches, which has boosted their position in the table. However, they’ve still won just two of their home matches this season, and only three of their 19 Serie A games overall. Meanwhile, they’re going up against a side who are impressing both at home and on the road, with Simone Inzaghi working wonders with this Lazio side across the last 18 months.

The visitors have won 70% of their away trips coming in to this weekend’s match, and we’re expecting them to add to that impressive form when they visit SPAL. Having claimed just 1.11 points per game here this term, the home side aren’t exactly formidable at their own ground. Meanwhile, Lazio have visited five bottom half sides this season, winning every one of those trips. With that in mind, we think the away side are great value to claim another victory here.

Lazio have scored at least twice in 80% of their away trips, and they’ve seen their fair share of exciting games. They may have drawn 0-0 at Inter last time out, but they have seen all of their other away trips go above 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 80% of those. The hosts have averaged over a goal a game, and we can see them taking part in a much more exciting game that in the reverse fixture. We’re backing an away win and over 2.5 match goals here.

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