TIP : Draw Half Time Odds 2.10

Inter Milan have gone from top of Serie A to seven points off the lead in their last three matches, which shows the plight they’re in right now. The Nerazzurri are struggling for results in all competitions, following their disappointing exit in the Coppa Italia to AC Milan, a side who are arguably in a bigger crisis than Inter. Everything seems perfectly set up for Fiorentina manager Stefano Pioli to claim revenge against the team who sacked him back in May, but can his side pull off a result?

The hosts have just two Serie A wins in their last eight matches, while they’ve won less than half of their games so far. That’s not a great record for a side who are used to pushing for Europe, but they’re at least in better shape than their last meeting with Inter. Having met the Nerazzurri on the opening day of the campaign, they seemed set for a season of struggle after selling their top stars. The manner of their loss to Inter was damaging, but la Viola have straightened up to keep within reach of a Europa League place.

Inter’s rivals AC Milan visited this ground last weekend, picking up a 1-1 draw. While that didn’t solve all of their problems, it was a solid result. After that, Fiorentina have now scored in 89% of their home matches, with BTTS landing in 67% of their games. Given that three of their last four meetings with Inter have seen BTTS, we expect goals in Friday’s encounter.

Both teams have scored in four of the last five meetings between the pair here, although we can’t see a repeat of last season’s 5-4 thriller. With Fiorentina suffering from set pieces this term, we can see Inter making the most of those situations in this game. The visitors have scored the fourth highest number of goals from set plays, while they’ve scored in 12 of their last 16 league away trips. With Inter in awful form and Fiorentina conceding over a goal per game this term, we think backing BTTS is the best way to go on this match.

Had Inter still been at their best, this would have been a game which they targeted three points from. Fiorentina haven’t been winning enough games of late, with their seven game unbeaten run in the league seeing just two victories. They’ve drawn back to back home matches, finishing level in three of their last four overall in Serie A. Given that Inter have failed to win a game for over a month, we’re backing a draw between these two sides as our second tip here.

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